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Original Title:	The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't
ISBN:	159420411X (ISBN13: 9781594204111)
Edition Language:	English
Literary Awards:	Goodreads Choice Award Nominee for Nonfiction (2012), Phi Beta Kappa Award in Science (2013)

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't

Nate Silver

Hardcover | Pages: 534 pages

Rating: 3.98 | 40710 Users | 2935 Reviews

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Title	:	The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't
Author	:	Nate Silver
Book Format	:	Hardcover
Book Edition	:	First Edition
Pages	:	Pages: 534 pages
Published	:	September 27th 2012 by Penguin (first published 2012)
Categories	:	Nonfiction. Science. Business. Economics. Politics. Psychology. Mathematics

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One of Wall Street Journal's Best Ten Works of Nonfiction in 2012 New York Times Bestseller "Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade." -New York Times Book Review "Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." -Rachel Maddow, author of Drift "A serious treatise about the craft of prediction-without academic mathematics-cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism." -New York Review of Books Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger-all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.

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Ratings: 3.98 From 40710 Users | 2935 Reviews

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I'm going to do this the Nate Silver (Bayesian) way. Kind of. Prior ProbabilityInitial estimate of how likely it is that I will buy Nate Silver a drink: x = 10% (This may seem high, given that he is a stranger who lives in another city, but I did rely on his blog during the past two elections, so I'd at least like to.) New Event -- I read Nate Silver's bookProbability that I will fly to New York and track him down and thrust a drink in his hand because this was a great book and I am impressed. y

"فارسی در ادامه"My actual rating would be 7/10. In general, it was an interesting and insightful read, although I have mixed feelings about some of the chapters and concepts, and sometimes the pretentious tone of presenting ideas. Let's start by two weaknesses:At some points it seems good prediction looks like a 'hammer' to see all the problems as 'needles'. So, all the problems can be interpreted as the failures of prediction. To me it does not sound very scientific (in a Popperian sense): an

I wanted to like this book as I enjoy reading Silver's blog. The majority of chapters in this book are inferior rehashes of arguments and anecdotes from other authors. See Moneyball, the Information, Fortune's Formula, A Random Walk, The Theory of Poker etc. etc. The book is clearly intended to capitalize on the popularity of his 538 blog, which as John Cassidy of the New Yorker just articulated overemphasizes the use of Monte-Carlo simulations to come up with inanely precise projections of a

The Signal and the Noise is a very interesting book with mixed success: 3 1/2 stars, were this permitted. I found it somewhat difficult to review; however, my entire book group without exception had similar opinions. I would encourage you to view this as a group opinion.At its best, TSANTN is interesting, illustrative, educational, and provocative. And many chapters including banking, the weather, volcanoes, elections, and poker were exactly that. Four stars, without hesitation. The problem

I finished this right before the 2012 elections, and I should have written my review before then so that I could convince more people to read this book when Nate Silver got more than Internet famous for a few weeks.At its core, this is a book about how to think -- a very important topic in these times when anything less than complete certainty is viewed as a weakness and the usual response to a disagreement is to double down on the position no matter how ridiculous.In contrast to this, Mr.

Eh, underwhelmed. A survey of prediction and predictive tools, starting with failures and moving on to successes. Nothing particularly new or interesting here, and I think Silver knew it. Its not like the premise that the strength of a prediction depends on the accuracy of the data is revelatory or anything. A lot of survey nonfiction like this can be saved with interesting collateral content. This book tours over a dozen topics, but I didnt find much new or compelling or even particularly

The Prior Before reading this book, I thought there was a 70% chance I would rate this book 3 stars or higher. The Signal Silver's chapter on Poker was interesting both from the perspective of statistics, but also about poker tactics and the metagame. I wish this were the core of the book. Also, the explanation of Bayes' theorem was solid, as was the chapter on stocks. The Noise Everything else. Superforecasting is MUCH better when talking about predictions, and much more engaging. Shiller's